周三，2年期美债收益比率繼創下5月以來的大跌幅之後，再度跌去4個基點，目前在4.71%附近徘徊。”過去一年通胀是個大問題，但现在环境已经变了，ETO外汇称”針對此，Pendal驻悉尼收益策略主管Amy Xie Patrick進一步說明，她一直青睐2年期美债。她認為，美联储的降息步伐將會超出市場目前的預期，且肯定會比他们说的更早、更大。
据周四报道，Patrick預測，由於美國6月通脹降幅超出预期，ETO外汇表示美联储可能會更早开始放松政策，2年期美债收益比率中期内可能跌至4%左右。
通胀–ETO外汇
目前市场预计7月可能是美联储终加息，不过，利率交易员預計，2024年5月以前可能不會降息。对此，Patrick表示，這表明價格壓力放緩可能是可持續的。
美国6月CPI超预期回落至3%，主要CPI则超预期降至4.8%，均创下两年来的低纪录。数据公布后，柔和派预期急速升温，周三美元指数失守101点，美债强劲上涨。
Pendal Group认为，由于美联储可能会比市场预期更快、更猛地降息，投资管理公司Pendal Group相信，短期美债将跑赢大盘。
美联储–ETO外汇
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s fa vored inflation indicator, the core service inflation rate excluding rent, is slowing to an annualized increase of 1.4% according to its three-month trend. “This indicates that the slowdown in price pressures may be sustainable,” Patrick said.
Wednesday, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, considered a “Fed spokesperson” and known as the “new Fed news agency”, commented on the June US CPI data, saying that the decline in US inflation in June to its lowest level in more than two years has increased the possibility of the Fed st opping rate hikes after a possible rate hike this month.
He specifically mentioned that Fed officials ha ve said they do not want to overreact to positive data in monthly inflation data and want to ensure that inflation is entering a meaningful downtrend.